The AFL Draft Gamble: Unpredictable Bids, High-Stakes Trades, and the Future of Football Talent
The 2025 AFL Draft is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and high-stakes events in recent memory. With a plethora of club-tied prospects and a complex bidding system, this year’s draft is a gambler’s paradise—or nightmare, depending on who you ask. But here’s where it gets controversial: How will clubs navigate the tricky waters of early bids, late trades, and the wide ranges of player valuations? And this is the part most people miss: The decisions made over these two days could redefine the future of several franchises.
The first night of the draft, kicking off at 7pm (AEDT) on Wednesday, November 19, promises to be a marathon of strategic moves and bold calls. With the remaining rounds following on Thursday, November 20, fans can catch all the action live on Kayo Sports. New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1. (https://kayosports.com.au/?pg=afl&extcamp=fsaeditoriallinkafl-edt-fsp-lnk-awr-grc-afl-kyo&channel=fsa&campaign=fsacontra&voucher=)
Early Bids: The Million-Dollar Question
Predicting where bids on club-tied talent will land is the trickiest aspect of this draft. However, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the top four players linked to clubs—Gold Coast academy duo Zeke Uwland and Dylan Patterson, Carlton father-son prospect Harry Dean, and Brisbane academy on-baller Daniel Annable—are likely to be snapped up within the first seven picks. But here’s the kicker: Rival clubs are divided on who will make these bids and when. West Coast (Picks 1 and 2) and Richmond (Picks 3 and 4) are expected to be the primary bidders, but the order and timing remain anyone’s guess.
West Coast, widely tipped to select Willem Duursma and Cooper Duff-Tytler with their natural picks, is also expected to bid on Uwland, a left-footed winger likened to dual All-Australian Errol Gulden. Patterson, meanwhile, is more likely to attract a bid from Richmond, who value his explosive speed and power. Controversial question: Are the Eagles spreading themselves too thin by bidding on multiple prospects, or is this a calculated risk worth taking?
Carlton is all-in on Harry Dean, the son of dual premiership player Peter Dean, and will ensure they’re positioned to match any bid. The Blues are also eyeing NGA prospect Jack Ison and stockpiling picks for 2026 father-son gun Cody Walker. Thought-provoking question: Is Carlton’s focus on father-son prospects a smart long-term strategy, or are they missing out on open-pool talent?
Daniel Annable, a strong-bodied on-baller, is a lock for Brisbane, but Richmond is the most likely bidder if the Lions pass. Essendon is also lurking, ready to pounce if Annable slips through the cracks. Bold interpretation: If Annable were already on Brisbane’s list, he’d be a regular starter—that’s how highly he’s regarded.
Later Bids: The Murky Waters
As the draft progresses, the bidding landscape becomes less certain. Clubs might even let academy prospects go to rivals if bids come ‘too early.’ Gold Coast, holding Picks 15, 18, 24, 28, 29, 36, and 52, is expected to trade some early picks to accumulate more points. But it’s not just about Uwland and Patterson—three more Suns academy players are in the mix for late first-round or second-round bids.
Jai Murray, a smooth-moving player with great endurance, is a favorite among several clubs, with his bid range starting at the Western Bulldogs (Pick 14). Beau Addinsall, a consistent midfielder, is also attracting interest from Geelong, Fremantle, Essendon, and North Melbourne. Controversial point: Recruiters are split on whether Gold Coast will match a bid for Addinsall, especially if Murray is also in play.
Sydney faces a similar academy conundrum with Harry Kyle, Lachlan Carmichael, and Max King. Kyle, a rebounding defender, has surged into first-round contention, while Carmichael is seen as the most acquirable of the trio. Question for discussion: Are the Swans spreading their resources too thin by chasing multiple academy prospects, or is this a smart way to secure future talent?
First-Round Trades: The Wild Card
The unpredictable nature of this draft has clubs bracing for more first-round trades than usual. Carlton’s Picks 9 and 11 are under the microscope, with their fate tied to the Harry Dean bid. If West Coast bids early, Carlton’s picks could turn into a selection in the 30s. But if Dean slides to Richmond’s Pick 6, Carlton could end up with a pick in the teens. Controversial take: Trading with Carlton is a gamble, as clubs might move up without knowing if their preferred player will still be available.
West Coast, Adelaide, and Essendon are all potential trade partners for Carlton, each with their own motivations. Thought-provoking question: Is Carlton’s willingness to trade a sign of confidence or desperation?
The Tiger Conundrum: Richmond’s Big Decisions
Richmond’s first two picks are a hot topic. If West Coast passes on Duff-Tytler, the Tigers are almost certain to snap him up. But the real debate revolves around Xavier Taylor, Sullivan Robey, and Sam Grlj. Bold question: Will Richmond prioritize defensive talent like Taylor, or will they opt for midfield power with Robey or Grlj?
Robey, a 192cm forward-mid, is the biggest bolter since Clayton Oliver, while Taylor is seen as a long-term replacement for defensive stalwarts like Nick Vlastuin. Grlj, with his speed and endurance, is a unique talent, but he could slide if Richmond passes. Controversial interpretation: Are the Tigers overthinking their options, or are they strategically waiting to see how the draft unfolds?
Wide Draft Ranges: The Wildcard Prospects
Several prospects have draft ranges so wide they’re nearly impossible to predict. Aidan Schubert, a key forward from Central District, could land anywhere from Essendon’s Pick 5 to Adelaide’s Pick 16. Ollie Greeves, a polarizing midfielder, might go as early as Geelong’s Pick 19 or slip to the second night. Question for the audience: Which prospect do you think is most likely to defy expectations and land in the top 10?
Final Thoughts: The Draft That Could Change Everything
This draft is more than just a talent acquisition exercise—it’s a high-stakes game of strategy, risk, and reward. With so many variables at play, one thing is certain: The decisions made over these two days will shape the future of AFL clubs for years to come. Final controversial question: Are clubs focusing too much on academy prospects and father-son legacies, or is this the smart way to build a sustainable future? Let us know in the comments below!
